The Future is Now

This was the week that was:

• The owner of the Philadelphia Inquirer and Daily News filed for bankruptcy protection; so did Journal Register Co.
• Hearst said it would close the San Francisco Chronicle if it cannot drastically cut costs or find a buyer.
• The Rocky Mountain News ended publication after nearly 150 years.
• The American Society of Newspaper Editors canceled its annual convention because of lack of attendance.

This was the week that was–the beginning of the end. Newspapers, as we know them, are dead.

I know a lot of people don't want to read that, and will rise up and argue that millions of papers are still sold every day, and thousands of people work hard to put them out, and millions of people read them, and countless advertisers still pay to be in them, and blah blah blah, but sorry: the printed newspaper, full of static, day-old news, is an anachronistic product, declining in popularity and value. Their Web sites, sorry, aren't much better.

Don't believe me? Look again at what happened last week, when the daily drumbeat of bad industry news was louder than ever (and hardly the last of the tremors to rock the industry). 

Look at the declines in readership, revenue and stock market value of newspapers and the companies that own them. Already inexorable, hastened by the slump in the economy, they're falling off a cliff. And they ain't coming back, no matter how many people wish that what's happening is merely cyclical, and someday, some way, those auto and retail and real estate advertises will come back, by gum, and so will readers, especially those young ones, and Wall Street will love us again. Not gonna happen.

Again: Newspapers, as we know them, are dead. Some will live on in a shadow of their current form; others, at the low end of the journalistic totem pole (e.g. community weeklies) will outlast their larger cousins. But the basic idea of what a newspaper is, that we all grew up with, is outdated, outmoded and soon to be defunct.

Rather than argue that, or mourn some romantic notion of what a newspaper was, we need to begin focusing now, right now, on what comes next. 

How will people find out what's going on around them when newspapers, in the next few months, wither and die? What will be the replacement? We're already seeing examples of the next-generation news and information product, in the Web, in blogs, in advertising competitors like craigslist and Monster and eBay, in information-finders like Google, in new local players like Yelp, in new ways to connect people and information like Twitter and Facebook.

The replacement for newspapers needs to be a melting pot of all of those things and more, a rich stew of information, connection, convenience, context, analysis, community, multimedia and many other things. We've not seen anything like that amalgam yet. But I think we can start to sketch what it might look like.

The news, information, advertising and interaction products that replace newspapers will vaguely resemble newspapers, but only superficially. They'll be online-centric products, taking advantage of all of the tools the Web (and mobile distribution) offers, rather than attempting to replicate their printed predecessors–a fatal and chronic mistake. They'll be highly participatory, providing opportunities for audience members to talk back, talk among themselves, freely exchange information they find, and rely on professional journalists to help them sort out the more thorny topics. The one-way lecture that we now know as news is going to be history; non-relevant news (e.g foreign and national reports available widely elsewhere) will be banished; information and advertising will be highly targeted to the audience's needs and desires.

Some particulars of these next-generation products:

• Local, local, local–The last truly defensible news franchise is highly targeted local coverage. There are readers and advertisers for hyperlocal government, school and crime and sports news, local entertainment reviews and other information.
• Niches–Some of these new products will cover demographic or subject niches, rather than (or in addition to) traditionally defined geographies. Think focused local sports, for starters.
• User-generated content–Let the audience members help out. They know things journalists will never get to. Give them a forum to share and talk about what they know.
• Professional content and curation–It's not all amateur hour. Put pros on key beats and, above all, get those journalists interacting constantly with readers to find out what's really important to the community.
• Aggregation–Jeff Jarvis said it best: Do what you do best and link to the rest. There's lots of content out there to aggregate. Be your audience's guide to the best stuff. (Howard Owens has an excellent primer on aggregation types, btw.)
• Databases–Find new ways to collect, collate and present information. Everyblock- and CinciNavigator-style info-maps are a good way to start. News and information don't have to always be presented in inverted-pyramid text formats. Really.
• Discussions, comments and forums–Get the readers participating, talking, sharing. The next-generation information product should be a beehive of community conversation.
• Social tools–Leverage Facebook, MySpace, LinkedIn and the rest to bring together audiences that already have connections to each other.
• Twitter–It's an obvious breaking-news and newsgathering tool. Take advantage of its immediacy.
• Video–Use it to for stories that are better shown than told. And by all means, make it easy for site visitors to upload their own videos. That goes for photos, too.
• Entertainment guides and calendars–Be the definitive place to find out what's going on around town. Let the audience easily add events, too.
• Multiple forms of distribution–Cell phones, iPhones, Facebook widgets, Kindles, syndication deals, whatever. Be promiscuous.
• Search-engine optimization–Part of being promiscuous: Make it easy for Google and other search engines to find your content (not the other way 'round, as some dinosaurs would advocate).
• Targeted and contextual advertising–Banner ads are soooo 1997. Google is winning because it ties ads directly to the content they accompany. Advertisers prefer that, too–and will pay more for it. 
• New advertisers–How many local businesses advertise in the average big-city daily? It's a single-digit percentage, in most places. There's a lot of room for growth there. Find ways to help restaurants, plumbers, party planners, barbers, nail salons and other small business to get the word out.
• Self-service advertising–The key to making advertising for small businesses profitable is to make it cheap to create those ads. One solution: Make it dead-easy for advertisers to place their own ads. 
• Business directories–Make it easy for readers to find them and review local businesses. Make it easy for businesses to reach out (and advertise) to readers. Everybody wins.

This list just scratches the surface–the successful next-generation news and information products will have to have all of these attributes, and more. But starting with a blank sheet of paper to design these new products, rather than trying to adapt existing products, will go a long way toward creating modern news, information and advertising services that are far richer (and more successful) than their existing forebears. These will be entirely new and different ways of finding out about and interacting with the world around us.

One more big thought: These next-generation news/information/communication/advertising products probably are not going to be built by those dying newspapers, or by the people who currently put them out. That's a hard thing to say, but I believe they've officially blown their chance. Weighed down by legacy thinking, costs and culture, the existing operators of newspapers simply can't move fast enough or imaginatively enough into the future. We've learned that over and over. If it wasn't true, newspapers wouldn't be dying.

I strongly believe it will be upstarts, new players, that build the successful news products of the future. Lean, nimble and creative, they'll be able to pull together all the ingredients listed above and come up with a replacement for the traditional newspaper that's far more interesting, interactive and richer in just about every way. 

The basic skills and mores of journalism that underpin them will have their roots in the products of the past, but will be arrayed in entirely new forms for an audience that assumes it's going to get real-time information, delivered in multiple forms, with audience participation and the ability to share, mix and match every element. Indeed, that sort of flexibility and freedom is antithetical to the tightly controlled newspapers we've known for decades. These new products will be so much better.

Newspapers are dead. The future is now. Let's start finding the best ways to serve the audience that's clamoring for something that puts the "new" back into news.

Comments

[Howard Owens]

Excellent post, Mark.

And today's the day I officially start my new full-time job of running The Batavian alone. I'm equally excited and scared as hell.

You let out verticals. I know everybody thinks the classified categories are dead for revenue, but what I'm finding is interest among advertisers in these categories. Yes, they know what they can do on their own, but they're also still looking for a local solution than can help deliver a concentration of local eyeballs.

And thanks for the link!

[Dan Woog]

I can do without most newspapers (including the one I write for, may God and my employer strike me dead). And, Mark, you've laid out an excellent analysis of what will come next (very, very soon).

But I don't think I can live without the New York Times. It stands head and shoulders above all other newspapers; it can't be replicated, and it can't be enjoyed nearly as well online (though its many online tentacles are impressive). Do you (or any other posters) see a future for the print Times?

[Mark Potts]

Dan: I've been looking for an excuse to talk about the survival of The New York Times for a while now, and you've given it to me. Clearly, the Times Co. is under duress, like other big publishers, and the Times itself faces additional challenges because of its national scope and circulation--unlike most papers, it can't retrench into a local strategy for survival. And printing around the country ain't cheap.

That said, I think the Times will last in print longer than most large papers, just on traditional and gumption alone. If you ask me what the very last printed newspaper will be, I'd say it will be the Sunday New York Times, which I think is a very different product from any other daily paper. The Sunday Times is more of a rich, magazine-like leisure read than any other paper (including the daily Times), and I think that unique attribute will help it survive for many years.

I stopped subscribing to print papers in favor of online versions years ago, without any ill effects. But you'll have to pry the print Sunday New York Times from my cold, dead hands. It's not the same as any other newspaper, and thus the exception that proves the rule.

[Dan Woog]

From your lips to god's ear.

[Dave Molloy]

A wonderful summary of the current opinions held by every educated professional, with some interesting personal insights.

Declaring the death of newspapers is a strong statement, though. And the idea that the Sunday New York Times will be the last? Maybe in New York, it will be the last paid-for paper. But the college press will live on, as will the free sheets (public transport will see to that) and the print media will still have a place in low income nations where access to technology and infrastructure is limited. As you said, big press organisations will continue to live on as a shadow of their former selves for a while, but I'm not sure the same applies to niche markets.

[RickWaghorn]

Bang, bang, bang. Nail after nail hit on the head. Top man. You should never have run out of track, fella...

Anyway, who knows, someone might, somewhere, come up with [part of] the answer... but it ain't going to come from the top down. IMHO.

It'll come from the people up; from the Pizza Parlour on the corner of EveryBlock being able to find a way to advertise his wares to his customers on that very same EveryBlock...

http://outwithabang.rickwaghorn.co.uk/?p=254

All the best, etc

Rick

[Justin Carder]

Thanks for saying hey for the upstarts! Some of the best 3-people-and-under news staffs are piecing your list together using free, cheap and open source tools and many are pretty good sites. We've put together a service that gives new efforts one solution to accomplish most of the things in your list including the community and self-serve advertising elements. You can see it in motion on sites like http://centraldistrictnews.com, http://thesouthlake.com and, my site, http://capitolhillseattle.com

Anybody interested in learning more should visit http://neighborlogs.com -- btw, we're advertising supported so Neighborlogs costs nothing but your time and effort. We also believe that independent efforts are best in this space so all the sites are independently owned and operated. We provide the service. You build your new era news and information business.

Thanks again for the inspiring post.

Justin Carder, Neighborlogs
206-399-5959